Including farm particulate information in the dispersion modelling of foot and mouth disease virus

Katie Brown - Met Office

14:00 - 14:15 Thursday 11 June Morning

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Abstract

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease infecting livestock including cattle, pigs and sheep. Of the different spread mechanisms of the virus, airborne spread is the hardest to control in the event of an outbreak. To aid policy makers to decide on the order in which to test holdings around an infected premise, dispersion models are used to predict the airborne spread of the virus.   The atmospheric dispersion model, NAME, has been adapted to predict the airborne spread of the foot and mouth disease virus (FMDV). To best represent the spread of the virus, the properties of the material the virus is carried on needs to be understood. FMDV is thought to be dispersed on particulate matter when travelling long distances from a holding.    In order to model the particulates being emitted from a holding, The Pirbright Institute took measurements of the particulate matter at six holdings across England. We have used these measurements to add in three different sized bins of aerosol particles to the NAME model. This also allowed different deposition schemes within NAME to be tested. Using aerosol sizes, and particle size dependent deposition schemes in the dispersion model increases the air concentration of virus across different weather conditions.

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